Wednesday, August 22, 2012

How are our Yankee Predictions Doing?

Pelle, Alex, Christian and I made 2012 season Yankee predictions for a number of different stats and figures in March. Let's take a mid/late season look at where they're at now. Actual number and projected number are below our picks.

Pelle: 98
Alex: 95
Christian: 96
Jesse: 102
Actual: 72/Projected: 95
Alex looks like the closest here, but Christian isn't far off. They'll need a 30-9 run for me to be right.

Andy Pettitte Wins
P: 9
A: 10
C: 8 
J: 11
Actual: 3/Projected: 4
Woof. Dandy Andy would have likely had at least 7-8 by now if not for his broken ankle. With a September return on the horizon, he's got no chance to make any of these numbers.

CC Sabathia Wins
P: 17
A: 18
C: 19
J: 21
Actual: 12/Projected: 16
CC spent a month on the DL during two stints but should have seven starts remaining beginning this Friday. No chance he gets to my number, doubtful he's at Christian's.

Phil Hughes Wins
P: 15
A:  11
C: 13
J: 15
Actual: 12/Projected: 16
Hughes, as he is wont to do, has been up and down this year. Looks like we were right in the neighborhood with his win total and Pelle and I have the best chance to nail it.

Mariano Rivera Saves
P: 41
A: 43
C: 39
J: 38
Actual: 5/Projected: 5
With his season over right around the same time the Knicks' was, Mo ended 2012 with 5 saves. His replacement, Rafael Soriano has done excellently this year, with 31 saves thus far, projecting for 41.

Mariano Rivera ERA of 1.50
P: over
A: over  
C: over
J: over
Actual: 2.16/Projected: 2.16
He gave up two runs in 8.1 innings. Looks like we were all correct, but the sample size was too small to accurately judge.

Brett Gardner Steals
P: 53
A: 44
C: 39
J: 46
Actual: 2/Projected: 2
Another Yankee out for the year. GGBG had 2 steals in 9 games before sustaining an injury. In that minuscule sample size, he would have been on pace for 43 if he kept it up.

A-Bombs (Alex Rodriguez home runs)
P: 28
A:  31
C: 33
J: 33
Actual: 15/Projected: 18
Woof, again. A-Rod is in the middle of a 4-6 week recovery for a broken wrist. Even while he was healthy, he looked old and didn't have much pop at all. No shot at getting anyone's prediction.

Derek Jeter batting average of .310
P: under
A: under
C: under
J: over
Actual: .324/Projected: .324
Jeter was on fire in April (.389), good in May, (.293), awful in June (.232) and scorching again in July (.346) and August (.386). If Mike Trout would just stick to being the future of baseball and not the present as well, Jeter would be competing for a batting title this year with Joe Mauer and Miguel Cabrera. Jeter's career September average is .324 on the nose, so he will look to finish right around where he's at now.

Yankee with most home runs
P: Cano
A: Granderson 
C: Granderson
J: Teixeira
Actual: Granderson/Projected: Granderson
The Grandy Man has 32 bombs this year. Cano is second on the club with 25 (after having just one through Cinco de Mayo). Teix is third with 23. Looks like Alex and Christian are spot on.

# of HR for Yankee leader
P: 41
A:  38
C: 39
J: 39
Actual: 32/Projected: 42
Grandy should hit the 40+ plateau for the second straight year if he has an average September. We were all right in the neighborhood but Pelle was the only one with the stones to guess 40+.

Yankee with most MVP votes
P: Cano (winner)
A: Cano  
C: Cano
J: Cano
Actual: N/A/ Projected: Cano
Cano leads the club and is third in the league in WAR with 4.3.

Three Gold Glove winners
P: push
A: push
C: push
J: under
Acutal: N/A/Projected: 3
Too early to tell, but a number of Yankees are in the top three of FanGraphs fielding rankings including Teixeira, Cano, Ichiro and CC.

# of All-Stars
P: seven
A: six 
C: seven
J: six
Actual: 4/Projected: 4
Whoops, looks like we were a little too confident. Granderson, Jeter and Cano started with CC also named to the team.

Yankees with 100+ RBI
P: three
A: four
C: four
J: four
Actual: 0/Projected: 1
Only Teixeira, who has 80 now, is on pace for triple digit RBIs. Granderson is close, pacing out to 96 with a current total of 73, but that's it. Cano (68) and Swisher (69) will have to catch fire to come close and may not even break 90.

Yankees with 100+ runs
P: three
A: four
C: four
J: four
Actual: 0/Projected: 3
Cano, Jeter and Granderson are all on pace for 100+ runs in 2012. Teix has just 64 and no chance to join the club. I'm going to act like FOX News on election night and declare Pelle an early winner of this category.

Yankees batting .300+
P: two
A: three 
C: one
J: two
Actual: 2/Projected: 2
Cano (.302) and Jeter (.324) should both be on the good side of .300 at the end of the season,  but no one else will be close. Ichiro is batting .312 in pinstripes but just .271 on the year. A-Rod is the next closest regular with a .276 average, but he'll need to RAKE to get to .300 in the few final weeks of the season once he returns. Pelle and I look smart here.

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Numbers from my Trip to the Little League World Series

Michael on the field prior to Saturday's game vs. Indiana

This weekend, we went to the Little League World Series in Williamsport, Penn. to watch my youngest cousin, Michael Ghiorzi, and his team from Fairfield American LL in Fairfield, Conn. compete. We left Saturday morning, heading north on I-71, then west on I-76 and I-80 to the small city in the middle of Pennsylvania. The team played in a pair of elimination games (after losing its opener vs. California, Thursday, August 16) while we were there, winning them both. Here are some stats, dollars and other figures from the trip.

50,000+- pins traded by kids and adults during any number of formal and informal pin trading sessions throughout our time there.
777- miles from Columbus to Williamsport, around town and back home.
28.1- MPG for the trip. Not terrible, but nothing to write home about...just blog about.
$32- price of the New England jersey I bought as soon as I got there.
$16.87- what I paid for a black velvet blazer at Kohl's originally priced at $225. Guess people from Williamsport don't have anywhere to wear such a thing so it was on mega sale.
12- runs Connecticut scored during the Saturday, August 18 game vs. Nebraska before it was stopped do to the mercy rule in the 5th inning.
11.5- estimated drive time round trip, in hours.
6'2"- height of Michael's older brother, my cousin Christian. Who we got to hang out with and learned that he's starting at FB for his HS Varsity team as a Sophomore.
6- Michael's uniform number.
4th- Fairfield's final ranking on the list of best teams in the country after losing vs. California (again, ugh) on Tuesday, August 21.
2B- position Michael plays.
1- nice person from Williamsport that we met in three days and two nights there. Mostly people were curt and just generally mean.
0- runs Connecticut gave up in the two games we saw.
0- hits allowed by Will Lucas in an elimination game vs. Indiana on Monday, August 20. The 49th no-hitter in LLWS history.