Wednesday, August 22, 2012

How are our Yankee Predictions Doing?

Pelle, Alex, Christian and I made 2012 season Yankee predictions for a number of different stats and figures in March. Let's take a mid/late season look at where they're at now. Actual number and projected number are below our picks.

Pelle: 98
Alex: 95
Christian: 96
Jesse: 102
Actual: 72/Projected: 95
Alex looks like the closest here, but Christian isn't far off. They'll need a 30-9 run for me to be right.

Andy Pettitte Wins
P: 9
A: 10
C: 8 
J: 11
Actual: 3/Projected: 4
Woof. Dandy Andy would have likely had at least 7-8 by now if not for his broken ankle. With a September return on the horizon, he's got no chance to make any of these numbers.

CC Sabathia Wins
P: 17
A: 18
C: 19
J: 21
Actual: 12/Projected: 16
CC spent a month on the DL during two stints but should have seven starts remaining beginning this Friday. No chance he gets to my number, doubtful he's at Christian's.

Phil Hughes Wins
P: 15
A:  11
C: 13
J: 15
Actual: 12/Projected: 16
Hughes, as he is wont to do, has been up and down this year. Looks like we were right in the neighborhood with his win total and Pelle and I have the best chance to nail it.

Mariano Rivera Saves
P: 41
A: 43
C: 39
J: 38
Actual: 5/Projected: 5
With his season over right around the same time the Knicks' was, Mo ended 2012 with 5 saves. His replacement, Rafael Soriano has done excellently this year, with 31 saves thus far, projecting for 41.

Mariano Rivera ERA of 1.50
P: over
A: over  
C: over
J: over
Actual: 2.16/Projected: 2.16
He gave up two runs in 8.1 innings. Looks like we were all correct, but the sample size was too small to accurately judge.

Brett Gardner Steals
P: 53
A: 44
C: 39
J: 46
Actual: 2/Projected: 2
Another Yankee out for the year. GGBG had 2 steals in 9 games before sustaining an injury. In that minuscule sample size, he would have been on pace for 43 if he kept it up.

A-Bombs (Alex Rodriguez home runs)
P: 28
A:  31
C: 33
J: 33
Actual: 15/Projected: 18
Woof, again. A-Rod is in the middle of a 4-6 week recovery for a broken wrist. Even while he was healthy, he looked old and didn't have much pop at all. No shot at getting anyone's prediction.

Derek Jeter batting average of .310
P: under
A: under
C: under
J: over
Actual: .324/Projected: .324
Jeter was on fire in April (.389), good in May, (.293), awful in June (.232) and scorching again in July (.346) and August (.386). If Mike Trout would just stick to being the future of baseball and not the present as well, Jeter would be competing for a batting title this year with Joe Mauer and Miguel Cabrera. Jeter's career September average is .324 on the nose, so he will look to finish right around where he's at now.

Yankee with most home runs
P: Cano
A: Granderson 
C: Granderson
J: Teixeira
Actual: Granderson/Projected: Granderson
The Grandy Man has 32 bombs this year. Cano is second on the club with 25 (after having just one through Cinco de Mayo). Teix is third with 23. Looks like Alex and Christian are spot on.

# of HR for Yankee leader
P: 41
A:  38
C: 39
J: 39
Actual: 32/Projected: 42
Grandy should hit the 40+ plateau for the second straight year if he has an average September. We were all right in the neighborhood but Pelle was the only one with the stones to guess 40+.

Yankee with most MVP votes
P: Cano (winner)
A: Cano  
C: Cano
J: Cano
Actual: N/A/ Projected: Cano
Cano leads the club and is third in the league in WAR with 4.3.

Three Gold Glove winners
P: push
A: push
C: push
J: under
Acutal: N/A/Projected: 3
Too early to tell, but a number of Yankees are in the top three of FanGraphs fielding rankings including Teixeira, Cano, Ichiro and CC.

# of All-Stars
P: seven
A: six 
C: seven
J: six
Actual: 4/Projected: 4
Whoops, looks like we were a little too confident. Granderson, Jeter and Cano started with CC also named to the team.

Yankees with 100+ RBI
P: three
A: four
C: four
J: four
Actual: 0/Projected: 1
Only Teixeira, who has 80 now, is on pace for triple digit RBIs. Granderson is close, pacing out to 96 with a current total of 73, but that's it. Cano (68) and Swisher (69) will have to catch fire to come close and may not even break 90.

Yankees with 100+ runs
P: three
A: four
C: four
J: four
Actual: 0/Projected: 3
Cano, Jeter and Granderson are all on pace for 100+ runs in 2012. Teix has just 64 and no chance to join the club. I'm going to act like FOX News on election night and declare Pelle an early winner of this category.

Yankees batting .300+
P: two
A: three 
C: one
J: two
Actual: 2/Projected: 2
Cano (.302) and Jeter (.324) should both be on the good side of .300 at the end of the season,  but no one else will be close. Ichiro is batting .312 in pinstripes but just .271 on the year. A-Rod is the next closest regular with a .276 average, but he'll need to RAKE to get to .300 in the few final weeks of the season once he returns. Pelle and I look smart here.

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