Sunday, October 18, 2009

Should you draft a QB in the 1st round of the NFL Draft?

These have nothing to do with the article below, but I'm too pumped not to put them up here.

Of the 32 starting quarterbacks during Weeks 5 and 6 (had to include both due to byes), exactly half of them were 1st round picks. Less than one third of the starters (10/32) were top 10 picks. You have just as good a shot in finding a starter in rounds 2-7 as you do in the first round. Not all QBs are the same, clearly and of the top 10 picks, you have an all time great (Peyton Manning), several pro bowlers, (Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, PHILLIP RIVERSSSS!!!!), a few young guys with promise (Matt Ryan), two rookies (Mark Sanchez and Matt Stafford), and oldie on the way out (Kerry Collins) and one young guy who looks awful (Russell).

The numbers for starters break down like so:
1st Round top 10: 10 (mentioned above)
1st Round 11-32: 6 (Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler, Jason Campbell, Joe Flacco, Kyle Boller, Aaron Rodgers)
2nd Round: 3 (Drew Brees, Chad Henne, Brett Favre)
3rd Round: 2 (Matt Schaub, Trent Edwards)
4th Round: 2 (Kyle Orton, David Garrard)
5th Round: 1 (Josh Johnson)
6th Round: 2 (Tom Brady, Matt Hasselback)
7th Round: 1 (Matt Cassel)

There have been 30 QBs drafted in the 1st round since 1998 with 16 teams taking one, seven teams taking two (Atlanta, Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Baltimore, San Diego and Washington) and nine teams staying away from the QB Russian roulette (Carolina, Dallas, Kansas City, Miami, New England, New Orleans, Seattle). Almost one third of the teams drafting a QB in the first round are unable to make it work and have had to draft another guy within a decade, sometimes even sooner. Thirteen of the slingers in this group are starters, 11 are back-ups and six are bagging groceries or waiting tables.

Number one overall picks (there have been eight) have a 50% chance of starting over this time period which sounds good until you consider that 25% of them are out of the league. This seems like a small sample size of just eight QBs, but it's not that tiny when you consider there have been only 25 QBs drafted at the top in the history of the NFL. In this same group of 30 QBs, 14 have been picked in the top three slots. Six of them are starters today, but three are backups and FIVE are out of the league (Alex Smith, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, Ryan Leaf, Joey Harrington). You have a lower percentage chance at finding a hit in the lower rounds, but it is incredibly less risky and you draft a few guys over four to six years in the lower rounds, chances are you'll find something good and get spend the higher picks on safer players/positions.

Sidenote: I'm sick of announcers saying that a guy 'knows how to win.' Everyone knows how to win, score more points/goals/runs than the other team. Douches.


No comments:

Post a Comment